The domestic stock market experienced significant volatility during the week of March 31 to April 4, marked by two substantial sell-off sessions at the end of the week. This turbulence was triggered by the USA imposing a 46% retaliatory tariff on Vietnamese imports. The panic selling on Thursday led to widespread apprehension, with the VN-Index plummeting near its floor limit and most stocks hitting or approaching their floor prices. A modest recovery followed on Friday, primarily driven by VN30 stocks, while many other stocks continued to decline or remained at floor prices. This represents the most intense sell-off since April 2022. By week’s end, the VN-Index closed at 1,210.67 points, down nearly 107 points (8.11%) from the previous week, and the HNX-Index ended at 216.97 points, down over 21 points (8.91%).
01 | Market liquidity surges significantly compared to previous week
Market liquidity spiked notably due to the broad-based sell-offs. On the HOSE, the average daily matched trading value and volume reached VND 94 trillion (with approximately VND 38.5 trillion in each of the last two sessions) and 1.1 billion shares, respectively, marking increases of 57.57% and 59.43% compared to the prior week.
02 | Two sell-off sessions at the end of the week
The week’s trading was highlighted by two sell-off sessions at the end of the week. The first occurred on Thursday, April 3, following the tariff announcement, leading to market panic and relentless selling throughout the session, with around 270 stocks hitting floor prices.
The second sell-off happened on Friday, April 4, despite bottom-fishing efforts, particularly in VN30 stocks. Market divergence ensued, with about 100 stocks still at floor prices. Sectors such as seafood, textiles, wood, and industrial real estate continued to hit floor prices due to a lack of buying interest, stemming from the tariff news. Conversely, certain sectors, including banking and large-cap stocks like STB, LPB, SHB, VIC, VHM, and VNM, showed notable recovery due to strong bottom-fishing demand.
03 | Foreign Investors Engage in Heavy Net Selling
This week marked the heaviest net selling by foreign investors since early 2020, with net sales exceeding VND 8.9 trillion on the HOSE. Notably, during the two significant downturn sessions, foreign investors net sold approximately VND 3.7 trillion and VND 2.8 trillion, respectively. Major net sales were recorded in stocks like FPT (-VND 1.157 trillion), MBB (-VND 1.141 trillion), SSI (-VND 827 billion), TPB (-VND 749 billion), and VCB (-VND 702 billion).
Conversely, foreign investors net purchased stocks such as GEX (+VND 471 billion), VRE (+VND 257 billion), VIX (+VND 62 billion), SHB (+VND 69 billion), and HVN (+VND 67 billion). Meanwhile, proprietary traders net bought VND 2.178 trillion during the week, with VND 2.130 trillion acquired during the two sell-off sessions.
04 | Market outlook for the week of April 8–11
Despite strong demand in certain large-cap stocks during the last session, many sectors, particularly those negatively impacted by the tariff news like seafood, textiles, wood, and industrial real estate, continue to face challenges. We propose two scenarios for the VN-Index in the upcoming week:
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Scenario 1: “Stabilization/Increase Followed by Decline”
The VN-Index stabilizes around 1,200 points, indicating a clear short-term bottom. Various sectors recover, especially those demonstrating strong momentum recently. However, under this scenario, we anticipate the VN-Index will face renewed downward pressure subsequently or in the following week. -
Scenario 2: “Initial Decline Followed by Recovery”
The VN-Index continues to decline sharply for another 1–2 sessions before rebounding strongly, leading to a market-wide recovery followed by sectoral divergence.
Kirin Capital believes that the market’s movements in the first 1–2 sessions of the week will be pivotal in determining the VN-Index’s trajectory for the week. We lean towards the second scenario, expecting the VN-Index to undergo a significant correction in the initial sessions before experiencing a robust recovery across the market, followed by subsequent sectoral differentiation.
Appendix
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Proprietary Trading Net Buying Value Over the Last 5 Sessions |
Foreign Investors’ Net Buying Value Over the Last 5 Sessions |
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Top 5 Gainers of the Week – HSX |
Top 5 Gainers of the Week – HNX |
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Stock |
Closing Price (Apr 4) | % Price Increase | Mã | Closing Price (Apr 4) | % Price Increase |
|
YBM |
17.9 | 35.6 | BKC | 76 | 39.5 |
|
FCM |
4.31 |
15.2 |
KSV | 257 | 37.3 |
|
DTT |
17 |
13.3 |
KDM | 19 | 20.3 |
|
CRC |
8.1 |
9.2 |
CX8 | 9.9 |
15.1 |
|
MHC |
8.15 | 8.8 | TPH | 13.5 |
10.7 |
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